Tour decisive stages

bikerZA

I'm interested where people think the Tour will shaken up, and could potentially be won..

Stage 15 finishes on the Cat 1 Verbier, so there are bound to be some time gaps. Stages 16 and 17 have some big climbs, but don't finish on any, so I'm not sure there will be big time gaps.
The ITT is short and pretty much flat, so again, not conducive to massive time gaps.. So will it all come down to the Ventoux?

What does everyone think?

avoidingmyphd

i think...

stage 16 will have no effect on gc, unless someone has a jour sans. so it might be lost here, but no serious winning will be done.

on stage 17, the double whammy of romme and colombier at the end can create gaps at the top and the descent is short enough for them to still be gaps at the bottom.

the ITT can certainly create gaps - even flat TT's are conducive to this, and this one has a climb quite near the end. and there's a day to recover the next day, so less chance of good TTers riding with one eye on ventoux. and anyone who is in contention but unable to make gains in the mountains (and they'll know for sure by now) this is his last chance to get a gap to defend on ventoux

on the other hand, contador wins up verbier, everyone else gives up, and it's all over. so verbier may end up more important than any of the subsequent stages, which would be a shame!

emadden

bikerZA wrote:

I'm interested where people think the Tour will shaken up, and could potentially be won..

Stage 15 finishes on the Cat 1 Verbier, so there are bound to be some time gaps. Stages 16 and 17 have some big climbs, but don't finish on any, so I'm not sure there will be big time gaps.
The ITT is short and pretty much flat, so again, not conducive to massive time gaps.. So will it all come down to the Ventoux?

What does everyone think?

There should only be small gaps if any on stage 15. The climb to verbier isnt hard (relative to other cat 1 climbs) particularly as it is not that long and there is a long easy run-in to it.
Could be some gaps on Stage 16. TT will open things a bit.

andyp

I reckon tomorrow may be more decisive than people expect, especially if the weather is as bad as being forecast. The assault on Astana needs to begin tomorrow if anyone other than Armstrong and Contador has plans to win the race.

iainf72

I'd agree with Andy.

There might be a bit of a sorting out. Tomorrow is the day to try something if you've got the legs and balls for it.

Mettan

I'm hoping Andy will do something tommorow - the rest will follow obviously - but who will be there at the end - wont be decisive tommorow, but its a chnce to gain time on Chris/Brad etc. The Alps are Andy's best chance of dropping everyone except Bert and Carlos (Andy will leapfrog everyone but Bert and maybe Lance in the overall standings) - I expect him to drop Lance, Cadel, Levi , Chris, Brad etc etc..... in the Alps.

afx237vi

I think Schleck will definitely try something tomorrow. I hope so anyway. It's the same kind of stage where Discovery nearly came unstuck in the 2005 Tour (cyclevaughters and FDREU know why!) - same profile, same area, including the Col de la Schlucht.

Cumulonimbus

The col du Platzerwassel has almost exactly the same distance and gradient as the Verbier climb does (8.7km at 7.6% ish). There is still 60kms to the finish from the top but a fair amount of that is either downhill or another uphill. Certainly could be an interesting day. Quite a lot of king of the mountains points on offer as well so we could see that comp hotting up. The two leaders were in the break today so maybe it'll give someone else the opportunity to catch up.

Its the sort of stage where Millar might fancy his chances. However, with both Wiggins and VDV to look after he may be on domestique duty.